Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.014425 0.016316 0.018363 0.020743 0.023436 0.026388 0.029873
2025-10-05 0.011781 0.014467 0.017621 0.021600 0.026489 0.032308 0.039770
2025-10-12 0.010213 0.013264 0.017053 0.022107 0.028681 0.036956 0.048189
2025-10-19 0.009136 0.012425 0.016698 0.022664 0.030795 0.041514 0.056765
2025-10-26 0.008074 0.011425 0.015954 0.022533 0.031870 0.044681 0.063667
2025-11-02 0.007267 0.010655 0.015398 0.022537 0.033041 0.047982 0.070951
2025-11-09 0.006482 0.009816 0.014637 0.022129 0.033525 0.050274 0.076897
2025-11-16 0.006000 0.009362 0.014371 0.022394 0.034977 0.054045 0.085315
2025-11-23 0.005475 0.008786 0.013856 0.022209 0.035690 0.056709 0.092198
2025-11-30 0.005180 0.008535 0.013811 0.022737 0.037540 0.061255 0.102420
2025-12-07 0.004664 0.007879 0.013059 0.022045 0.037332 0.062453 0.107208
2025-12-14 0.004277 0.007399 0.012549 0.021697 0.037645 0.064494 0.113538
2025-12-21 0.003860 0.006837 0.011865 0.021011 0.037349 0.065530 0.118305
2025-12-28 0.003742 0.006784 0.012044 0.021841 0.039770 0.071452 0.132269
2026-01-04 0.003582 0.006642 0.012051 0.022356 0.041658 0.076562 0.145178
2026-01-11 0.003442 0.006523 0.012086 0.022919 0.043670 0.082040 0.159226
2026-01-18 0.003218 0.006224 0.011767 0.022787 0.044355 0.085099 0.168884
2026-01-25 0.003031 0.005981 0.011531 0.022791 0.045290 0.088687 0.179860
2026-02-01 0.002809 0.005652 0.011102 0.022379 0.045369 0.090608 0.187638
2026-02-08 0.002686 0.005507 0.011020 0.022647 0.046824 0.095347 0.201561
2026-02-15 0.002521 0.005266 0.010726 0.022459 0.047327 0.098195 0.211756
2026-02-22 0.002445 0.005200 0.010780 0.022993 0.049372 0.104358 0.229531
2026-03-01 0.002252 0.004871 0.010270 0.022293 0.048731 0.104840 0.234959